The SPLAT-CMP model, an advanced framework developed by IRENA in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), represents a significant leap in continental power system planning for Africa. This model underpins the Africa Continental Master Plan (CMP) for electricity generation and transmission, a flagship project adopted by the African Union as part of its Agenda 2063. The CMP aims to create a unified African power grid by 2040, enhancing energy access, reliability, and sustainability across the continent.
The SPLAT-CMP model is an evolution of previous SPLAT models, incorporating state-of-the-art features to address the unique challenges of Africa’s diverse energy landscape. Each country is represented as a single node with different energy levels: primary (resources), secondary (power generation), tertiary (transmission), and final (distribution). This hierarchical structure allows for a detailed analysis of resource availability, conversion efficiency, and electricity distribution, providing a comprehensive view of each country’s power system.
The model includes updates to better reflect real-world complexities. For instance, fuel prices are differentiated by type and origin, and the model includes specific parameters for committed power generation assets—those with financial close and certain future deployment. Candidate technologies for future generation capacity are also pre-loaded into the model, allowing for scenario-based planning that accounts for construction times and financial parameters.
The CMP’s first exercise involved three main analyses: demand projections, generation, and cross-border transmission expansion, and network studies. Demand projections were developed using EViews, considering various scenarios from baseline to high aspirational targets. These projections provided a foundation for the SPLAT-CMP model to identify cost-optimal solutions for new generation capacity, interconnections, and storage assets.
One of the critical features of the SPLAT-CMP model is its ability to handle constraints and operational aspects of power systems. For instance, it includes constraints like planning reserve margins and limits on the penetration of variable renewable energy sources. Such features ensure that the model’s outputs are not only economically optimal but also technically feasible, addressing the practicalities of grid operation and stability.
The model’s power generation updates include a detailed representation of different technologies, from solar and wind to hydro and thermal power plants. It incorporates data from the AfREP-hydro database to model reservoir hydropower accurately, and it uses geospatial data to optimize the placement of solar PV, CSP, onshore wind, and offshore wind generation. These updates allow the SPLAT-CMP model to evaluate the potential and limitations of various renewable energy sources across Africa, promoting a balanced and sustainable energy mix.
Transmission planning is another vital component of the SPLAT-CMP model. It evaluates the technical and economic aspects of cross-border interconnectors, considering factors like line loadability, voltage levels, and efficiency. This detailed analysis helps identify the most viable routes for expanding the continent’s transmission network, facilitating the integration of regional power pools, and enhancing cross-border electricity trade.
The CMP initiative supports the African Single Electricity Market (AfSEM), launched in 2021 to create a continent-wide electricity market. The SPLAT-CMP model plays a crucial role in this effort by providing a robust analytical foundation for planning and decision-making. The involvement of regional power pools and international partners like IRENA and IAEA ensures that the model aligns with regional policies and leverages global best practices.
In conclusion, the SPLAT-CMP model represents a significant advancement in power system planning for Africa. By integrating detailed data, advanced modeling techniques, and regional collaboration, it provides a powerful tool for achieving the continent’s ambitious energy goals. As Africa progresses towards a unified and sustainable power grid, the SPLAT-CMP model will be instrumental in guiding this transformation, ensuring that energy development is both inclusive and resilient.
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