Thai Energy Sector Set for Strong Q2 Recovery Despite External Shocks

Thailand’s energy companies are projected to post a strong rebound in the second quarter of 2025, supported by seasonal demand and a revival in economic activities, according to a recent report by UOB Kay Hian.

Electricity consumption in Thailand typically peaks during the second quarter, driven by the scorching summer months of April and May, as well as increased power usage during the Songkran holidays. This seasonal surge, combined with a recovery in tourism and commercial sectors following a slower first quarter, is expected to significantly boost electricity sales.

UOB Kay Hian also downplayed concerns over recent external events, including the earthquake that struck Myanmar and northern Thailand. The report noted that key energy infrastructure remains safe, as most large-scale power plants operated by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand are located in low seismic-risk zones such as Rayong, Chonburi, Pathum Thani, Ayutthaya, and neighboring Laos—areas distant from major fault lines.

Similarly, the impact of the recent U.S. reciprocal tariffs is expected to be limited. “Most major Thai utilities primarily focus on domestic power generation and regional investments, particularly in Laos and Vietnam,” the brokerage noted.

That said, UOB highlighted potential longer-term risks. If tariffs were to hinder Thailand’s key export sectors—such as auto parts, electronics, and food processing—there could be a knock-on effect on industrial electricity demand, especially for small power producers (SPPs) that serve manufacturing clients.

On the investment front, UOB anticipates a notable rise in capital expenditure. This is due to ongoing infrastructure upgrades, with most critical equipment such as turbines, transformers, and control systems sourced from Europe, Asia, or local suppliers—minimizing exposure to U.S.-imposed tariffs.

Despite global uncertainties, Thailand’s energy sector appears poised for a strong performance in the months ahead.